Forecaster Arena – Testing LLMs on real events with prediction markets

Forecaster Arena – Testing LLMs on real events with prediction markets. Hey HN! I&#x27;m Mert.<p>I built this because I was frustrated with LLM benchmarks potentially being contaminated by training data. When a model scores 99.9% on MMLU-Pro-Max, we can&#x27;t tell if that&#x27;s genuine reasoning or memorization.<p>Forecaster Arena tries to solve this by testing models...